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A View From Here May 2012

May 7, 2012 • Print This Article

"How sad would be November if we had no knowledge of the spring." Edwin Way Teale

Like the Weather

I recently attended the funeral for the mother of one of my oldest friends who lost a lengthy battle to cancer. As we congregated in a field that was both windy and near freezing, a person standing close by wondered aloud, "Isn't it strange that it was so much warmer two months ago?" I smiled at the absurdity and reality clashing this spring day knowing all too well that I pulled the wrong coat before I left the house.

Thinking back, it became clear that one of the best correlations to the stock market is the weather. We are all too aware that different seasons bring changes in climate, but the day-to-day and month-to-month variation is far less predictable.

In January 1988, when I started in the industry as an assistant to the President of an investment firm, the Dow Jones Industrial Index (DJIA) had closed the previous month at 1,938.83. This same index closed at 13,213.63 on April 30, 2012...a 7x increase.

While the markets direction is clear, the journey has seen all kinds of trials and tribulations from wars, boom and busts and the collapse of some of the most powerful banking and economic institutions in the world. Add in the periods of anxiety, fear and elation that has followed that 25 plus year journey, and I assure you that while the themes will change, something similar will be said of the next 25.

In Forbes columnist, Ken Fisher's new book "Markets Never Forget", he writes an interesting passage that I quote:

"No matter how big, new and scary something may seem, we've almost always have been through something similar before. And if you can remember that, find those other times and learn lessons from them, you can know better how to react - or not react. You can know that it's never as bad, as great or as lasting as your faulty memory makes you think. Just remembering that can make you a better investor. Don't forget. Markets don't."

From our perspective, it is about the investments we own and the growth that can be achieved. Our investment accounts have maintained a history of great performance and the first 4 months of 2012 have been stellar. If you would like a copy of your returns, please feel free to contact Afsi or myself.

Thanks for taking a look!

And as always...

All Good Things!

Adam Hennick
Senior Advisor
Mackie Research Capital

Filed under: Uncategorized

The opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are those of the author as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice and may not reflect those of Mackie Research Capital Corporation ("MRCC"). The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled and derived from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness. Neither the author nor MRCC accepts liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. Information may be available to MRCC which is not reflected herein. This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation for an offer to buy any securities. Member-Canadian Investor Protection Fund / member-fonds canadien de protection des ├ępargnants.

Mackie Research Capital Corporation (MRCC) makes no representations whatsoever about any other website which you may access through this one. When you access a non-MRCC website please understand that it is independent from MRCC and that MRCC has no control over the content on that website. The content, accuracy, opinions expressed, and other links provided by these resources are not investigated, verified, monitored, or endorsed by MRCC.

 

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